Climate risks go beyond just direct infrastructure damage to your assets and operations. Climate events such as droughts, exacerbated by climate change, can lead to harsh geopolitical consequences.
Climate change has become a key challenge for countries worldwide in recent decades. The anthropogenic effects of weather and climate extremes, stemming from industrial activities, fertilisation, intensive farming and deforestation among others, have widespread impacts on natural environment, livelihoods, and the global economy. The consequences of climate change, from more intense and frequent rainstorms to longer lasting, more severe droughts, go beyond just the direct physical impact of climate hazards, with the conditions they create acting as a threat multiplier, magnifying other existing hardships and tensions, and potentially leading to increased insecurity, conflict, and geopolitical problems.
This blog will focus on drought and its geopolitical consequences by taking sub-Saharan Africa as a case study. Drought is a prolonged period of dry weather due to the lack of precipitation, which leads to water insecurity, crop losses, food crisis, conflict over resources and forced migration. Human-induced climate change affects the frequency and severity of droughts, and early research claims that it causes stronger El Niño events, a recurring climate pattern that warms Pacific Ocean waters and has a major impact on regions such as Southern Africa. According to the United Nations Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs (OCHA), El Niño-linked droughts have led six countries – Botswana, Lesotho, Namibia, Malawi, Zambia, and Zimbabwe – to declare a state of national disaster after water shortages have led to agricultural failure and, consequently, millions of people hit by acute food insecurity, malnutrition and widespread diseases.
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Figure 1. Examples of drought-related incidents (Jan. 2024-Nov. 2024) [Image: Sigma7 Intelligence Fusion]
Conflicts over precious resources often ensue as ethnic groups and militias seek arable lands, pasture, and aquifer. Populations are forced to migrate to escape hunger, leading to internal displacement or cross-border migration. Disputes may rise between countries with shared water bodies, such as the River Nile, the River Niger or the Lake Chad Basin, over water management practices and projects – for instance, Ethiopia’s Grand Renaissance Dam on the Blue Nile has sparked tensions with Egypt. Political instability may worsen in already fragile states as people turn against, protest or even potentially rise up against the government to demand a solution to food crisis and water insecurity, causing upheaval and uncertainty for organizations. These events therefore not only have direct effect on agriculture and livestock, but they also impact industries like mining, gas, and oil operating in affected areas.
Understanding how climate change influences business operations is paramount for risk and intelligence managers. This blog aims to provide an understanding of the geopolitical consequences of drought, using the work that Sigma7 Intelligence Fusion carries out daily concerning climate change and related security risks to inform its analysis.
Figure 2. Impact of drought on Zambia and Zimbabwe [Image: Sigma7 Intelligence Fusion]
On October 15, the World Food Programme (WFP) Spokesperson for Southern Africa warned that the region is experiencing the “worst food crisis in decades” after the “historic” drought triggered by El-Niño hit sub-Saharan countries. The WFP called for critical humanitarian assistance as about 21 million children are suffering from malnutrition and 27 million people have been affected. In Chad, lack of rainfall is causing poor harvest and the arrival of thousands of refugees from conflict-ridden areas have led to a decrease in the availability of arable land. Lake Chad, a major source for freshwater, irrigation, fishing, and biodiversity for Chad, Niger, Cameroon, and Nigeria, has seen its water levels shrink by 90% since the 1960s. In Zimbabwe, subsistence farmers are forced to dig roots to feed themselves and their children. Zambia lost 1.2 million hectares of stable maize crops and the hydroelectric power plant on Lake Kariba is unable to run due to the shortage of water, leading to nationwide blackouts and critical business disruptions.
Figure 3. Incident of violence during livestock theft in South Sudan [Image: Sigma7 Intelligence Fusion]
In several countries, drought is pushing farmers and herders to seek new lands thus leading to competition over natural resources. For instance, extreme weather in South Sudan is a major factor in communal violence and livestock theft. Water insecurity and dry lands often push bandits to carry out farm attacks in order to seize territory and cattle. On June 22, 10 people were killed and six wounded during “livestock recovery” in Aliny County whereas on July 30 an attack on a grazing land in Tonj East County led to the killing of seven people and the injuring of six others. In the border areas of Cameroon and Nigeria, Boko Haram militias have perpetrated numerous attacks on herders, stealing dozens of heads of cattle. Livestock thefts and violence between pastoralist groups put a strain on livelihood and exacerbate poverty and food crisis. This leads to the forced migration of thousands of farmers and herders and their families which in turn causes tensions with local pastoral groups in the host country.
Figure 4. Actor profile of Jama’at Nasr al-Islam wal Muslimin (JNIM), a jihadist militia operating in the Sahel region [Image: Sigma7 Intelligence Fusion]
In the Sahel, climate change has intensified pre-existing conflicts between nomadic herders (like the Fulani) and sedentary pastoral communities (like the Bambara and the Dogon), particularly in Mali and Burkina Faso. The involvement of jihadist militias, such as al-Qaeda in the Islamic Maghreb (AQIM), the Islamic State in the Greater Sahara (ISGS) and the Jama’at Nusrat ul-Islam wa al-Muslimin (JNIM), which aim to exploit the instability stemming from resource scarcity, have led to further destabilisation. As previously mentioned, shrinking waters in the Lake Chad Basin stirs tensions among farmers, herders, and fishermen that prompt violent clashes and displacement of civilian population. According to Refugees International, water insecurity and hostilities forced 60,000 people to flee from Cameroon to Chad in mid-2021. The humanitarian organisation found that Chadian and Cameroonian authorities are fuelling the conflict instead of seeking a solution: high-ranking officials have allegedly bought several heads of cattle and hired armed herders to seize water sources and grazing lands. Drought has also worsened the situation in Ethiopia’s conflict-laden Ogaden (officially Somali) Region. While hostilities in Ogaden are moved by an insurgency led by the Somali Ogaden National Liberation Front (ONLF), which aims for self-determination and secession, pressures over resources have intensified local grievances and exacerbated uprisings. Several families in Ogaden are forced to migrate in search of better grazing lands while other herders give up and look for alternative jobs in urban areas. In Amhara Region, at least 1,500 water points have dried up and about one million people suffer from water insecurity, while 2.4 million livestock have been affected.
Figure 5. Examples of cattle-related violence (Jun. 2024-Nov. 2024) [Image: Sigma7 Intelligence Fusion]
The aforementioned examples give only a partial picture of the geopolitical consequences of drought in sub-Saharan Africa and many more could be given. What this illustrates, though, are the ways in which climate change generates a ripple effect over people’s livelihoods, armed conflicts, and the global economy.
Figure 6. Water Insecurity theme on the Sigma7 Intelligence Fusion platform [Image: Sigma7 Intelligence Fusion]
Businesses that operate in areas affected by extreme weather events are at risk of facing operational, financial, and strategic challenges if not prepared, and should be aware of security risks that accompany water insecurity. In the case of sub-Saharan Africa, the presence of oil and mining industries is significant. Incidents directly or indirectly prompted by weather extremes like drought, but also flooding, can damage infrastructure, lead to supply chain disruptions, cause operational downtime, increase insurance premiums, impact investment, and pose a risk to the workforce. To cite a couple of examples, water shortage could lead to operational halts or higher costs for those businesses that rely heavily on water, including manufacturing and mining, while land-grabbing and armed conflicts could disrupt supply chain operations. By acting as a threat multiplier, climate change is worsening resource scarcity, community tensions, forced displacements, and numerous other factors that can lead to political uncertainty, wider conflict and greater regional instability. This in turn can lead to higher operational and security costs, place assets and people at greater risk, and, in worst case scenarios, potentially make operations unviable.
To tackle climate risks, risk and intelligence managers should be prepared to advise their business leaders or clients to invest in resilient infrastructure, adopt climate adaptation strategies, and regularly assess exposure to climate hazards. They should also be preparing for the ways in which the physical security, geopolitical and wider operating environment can be worsened by the knock-on effects of climate change. By tracking climate hazards such as droughts, as well as other factors such as infrastructure failures, communal clashes, protests, and armed violence, organizations can carry out relevant scenario exercising and planning, update contingency plans, and take informed decisions to ultimately stay ahead of these risks.
Sigma7 Intelligence Fusion allows you and your team to understand the historical, developing and contemporaneous threats facing your organization across its operations. With over 1 million historical data points, and 20,000+ new incidents mapped each month, each one verified, accurately geolocated and categorised across 150+ incident types, our easy-to-use, granular platform helps risk and security teams across the globe understand and plan for the risks facing their organization.
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