The importance of businesses implementing comprehensive risk management strategies to ensure resilience amid the heightened political violence and instability expected during the 2024 US election.
For businesses, elections can bring about substantial changes in key areas such as regulations, policies, supply chains, social stability, market volatility and reputations, all of which can increase risk. Most significantly, they also bring with them the potential for political violence. This places people, facilities, assets, operations, information, and profitability at risk.
The 2024 US election – in particular – is a source of concern for many business leaders. This article provides an overview of the potential threats to businesses and the strategies they can implement to achieve resilience during this uncertain political climate.
Analysts have been forecasting political violence and unrest ahead of the upcoming US elections for quite some time now, with civil disorder becoming an increasingly common occurrence in the country over the past decade. Among these was Sigma7 Intelligence Fusion’s Senior Regional Analyst for North America, who in November 2023 predicted a surge of political violence ahead of the 2024 election. There are myriad factors that have contributed to this increased potential for unrest, which you can read about in more detail here, but the bottom line is that it has increased the level of risk for organizations across the country, which makes effective risk management efforts paramount for your company.
The theme below shows violent incidents related to the upcoming election on the Sigma7 Intelligence Fusion platform. In the past, we have seen an increase in militant activity in the build up to, and aftermath of an election, often leading to violent confrontations, and we are seeing a trend of these incidents becoming more violent and having more of an impact on organizations. During the Trump presidency, for example, there were multiple Antifa attacks on American cities, and this is expected to continue with other actors, such as political militant groups on both sides of the political spectrum and environmental groups posing threats. Increasingly polarized debates regarding social and political issues and growing activity from militant groups suggest that any electoral result will produce widespread protests.
Significant incidents related to the forthcoming US elections [image source: Sigma7 Intelligence Fusion]
Looking at incidents reported since the start of 2024 shows multiple bomb threats, threat warnings, and indicators of increasing social unrest. Nick Routley offers further context for civil disorder (Visual Capitalist 2020), suggesting that politically motivated violence is most commonly associated with:
The 2024 US election security and business risks are directly associated with politically motivated unrest; but also include perceived social and economic injustice, and should widespread riots occur, could be exacerbated by responding police and security force actions.
Courts across the country have become the target of violence as we approach the 2024 election [image source: Sigma7 Intelligence Fusion]
As mentioned above, the most common threat type is social unrest in the form of activism, demonstrations, riots, and road blockades. If we look at the 2020 US election, it provides an overview of the threats to businesses at that time. Sigma7 Intelligence Fusion reports emerging, real-time, and historical incidents that provide tactical, operational, and strategic intelligence allowing customers to make decisions with confidence.
Reuters/Ipsos poll of approximately 4,500 voters found that roughly 20% of both Democratic and Republican respondents called violence acceptable if it was committed to “achieve my idea of a better society” (Reuters, 2023). Reuters also suggests that political violence is a result of political polarization with violence being increasingly aimed at people, rather than at property, with acts of spontaneous or organized political violence no longer based on a specifical racial group but seeing a more mainstream participation from the American populace (Kleinfield 2021).
The screenshot below shows an overview of some of the threat types reported in 2020 based on the theme of the US election.
Politically-linked incidents in 2020 [image source: Sigma7 Intelligence Fusion]
There is also expected to be an increase in fake or biased news, AI deepfake, and cyber-attacks that can cause mass disruption to businesses; again, we saw this in 2020 when the integrity of the election was questioned with widespread complaints of election fraud taking place.
We can also expect a rise in violence and violent threats surrounding the election, with trends such as bomb threats being recorded at courthouses across the country being observed by our analysts.
Bomb threats targeting public buildings in the build-up to the 2024 US elections [image source: Sigma7 Intelligence Fusion]
Dr. Mike Blyth, DBA, from Sigma7 University, recently led a study with 67 senior risk professionals, published in the Journal of Business Continuity and Emergency Management, and also offered to ASIS magazine (read here). Among his findings, he stated that:
“The attempted assassination of Trump will “invariably widen the political divide in America. The pre-mobilization phase that precedes public gatherings and politically motivated violence will likely see a wide range of rumors, conspiracy theories, and deep fake misinformation, which will exacerbate the ‘emotional pitch’ and encourage further acts of isolated or widespread violence”.
Colin Brown, Risk Leader at Sigma7, discussed the impact of the elections on domestic America and foreign policy in a recent webinar, stating:
“From a corporate security perspective, it is a culminating point of change for businesses. The ongoing power dynamics between the US and China, elections across the world, the impact of climate change, direct conflicts with Russia, indirect conflict with Iran via proxies in Europe and the Middle East, and the rapid deployment of AI into developed societies present an opportunity for a change in strategy in order to achieve resilience. With so many factors ongoing, the threat of something happening closer to home is much higher than businesses may have previously anticipated. From a regional perspective, it could directly or indirectly affect assets, businesses, and people that have traditionally not been affected.
The best way to achieve resilience is to break down silos within businesses to create a coherent program that allows leaders to have foresight and respond to situations as proactively as possible. However, there will always be situations that require a reactive response; in these instances, it is important that leaders are trained in crisis management and business continuity and that it isn’t just a tick-box exercise. A culture of safety and security should be adopted by everyone in order to have effective decision-makers who develop an approach to competency for making decisions in a crisis. Resilience strategies need to be integrated across businesses; risk mitigation will never be achieved if it is solely the responsibility of the security/risk team”.
US-based companies – in particular – should be making plans for organizational resilience based on the threats associated with the election. De-risking supply chains should also be considered as incidents may not interrupt the “shop front”, but demonstrations or cyberattacks may impact operations further down the line. Assessments should be compiled as soon as possible to maximize preparedness. Key vendors in the supply chain should have a plan to de-risk the process and share it with stakeholders to discuss how they will collectively respond.
In terms of foreign policy, in the past, we have seen certain politicians reducing or changing funding for NGOs when they’re elected. Therefore, that is a major concern for the Humanitarian Aid and Development sector – you can learn more about the impact of the US election and other threats to NGOs on this webinar.
But in general, elections can be a good marker for organizations to understand trends of increasing or decreasing stability and predictability. Edward Burrell, Director of Global Safety and Security at MSH, and Simon Clarke, Global Security Director at Jhpiego discussed this on our webinar.
“Planning for the known unknown is essential; in recent years, warning messages have had to be sent to US-based teams that haven’t been required before. It is important for any organization, not just NGOs, to look at the “what ifs”, as there is a genuine threat of widespread operational disruption and violence. AI and deepfakes can also cause the security situation to escalate, as it can be really hard for teams on the ground to decipher what information is real or fake. Having all of the relevant plans in place ensures it is not the first-time leadership has thought about the risks and potential tactics if the worst-case scenario occurs“.
“According to insurer Beazley’s Geopolitical Risk Snapshot 2024, 70% of leaders worry about this year’s elections, with 36% believing they operate in a high-risk environment – up 5% on last year” (The Actuary, 2024).
In addition, a recent poll of Airmic members found that 40% were concerned about the US election. Airmic stated that “a potential return of Donald Trump to the presidency has sparked concerns that the US could withdraw from international organizations such as the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) – with ramifications for geopolitics amid ongoing wars between Ukraine-Russia and Israel-Hamas” (Airmic, 2024).
We conducted our own survey in Q1 of this year and 33% of security professionals said that political instability had a moderate impact on their business, 20% said major, and 13% extreme. They also felt that Politics and International Relations was the most vulnerable sector in Q1 and 32% said that they felt security threats had been the most common threat type in the first quarter followed by conflict and criminality (Intelligence Fusion, 2024).
Similar to our own survey results, the Beazley survey found that 30% of global business leaders see political risk as the biggest threat they face this year. “A total of 27% of UK leaders and 25% of their US counterparts said that they are unprepared for the threat of political risk and violence” (The Actuary, 2024).
Security and Risk professionals at Sigma7 have noted that companies are increasingly seeking political risk cover for events such as terrorism, war, civil commotion, and activism, especially in politically unstable areas.
However, insurance companies are becoming more risk-averse, and in extreme circumstances, it can be challenging for businesses to gain full payouts or transfer certain categories of risk e.g. political risk and cyber risk. If an incident does interrupt your operations and you are not able to obtain sufficient cover it can have devastating repercussions. This is where Sigma7’s risk engineering and forensic accounting teams can offer support and advice to mitigate risk or help you if the unexpected does happen and financial recovery is required.
Author: Lyndsay Close
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