Business leaders should be bracing themselves for significant disruption as the 2024 US election approaches
Security professionals are warning of the potential for widespread rioting and civil unrest in the lead up to and aftermath of the 2024 US election, with political violence posing a substantial business disruption risk. Civil disorder has accompanied the past two US Presidential election cycles, from rioting at anti-Trump demonstrations in 2016 to the storming of the Capitol Building on January 6, 2021. Conditions for further electoral violence are high in 2024 – and business leaders should be paying attention.
As the US nears the contentious 2024 elections, the country is home to fertile conditions for political violence. Many of the sources of instability that led to the storming of the US Capitol remain in place today, in addition to a number of other factors that have worsened or emerged in the past four years.
Root causes of unrest [image source: S7 RSM]
These conditions include perceived social and economic injustice, the polarization of American society over the validity of the 2020 elections and the integrity of the 2024 elections, anti-abortion rulings and contention over LGBTQ+ rights, pro-Israel and pro-Palestinian activism, and a growing number of extremist groups on both the far right and left – combined with a corrosion of trust in the executive, legislative and judicial branches of government. These factors are exacerbated by multiple hostile state actors and terror groups, AI deepfakes, conspiracy theories becoming mainstream, inflammatory and biased media reporting, and a deeply concerning acceptance among Americans that violence is a valid means of settling political disputes. This convergence of exacerbators and accelerants for political discord offers the potential for serious security risks and significant business disruption.
The attempted assassination of Donald Trump adds another wildcard factor into the mix. While the motive of the shooter remains unclear – and the incident itself may not have been an act of politically-motivated violence – it has the potential to act as a spark that triggers further acts of political violence. Had the shooter been successful, it is likely that it would have led to widespread rioting and clashes, but the potential remains for radicalized actors to carry out acts of retribution, especially while disinformation and conspiracy theories are shared about the would-be assassin. On the other hand, the attempt on a candidate’s life could act as an inflection point that leads to the cooling of divisive rhetoric, and perhaps eases some tensions that are a contributing factor to political violence. Nonetheless, organizations should be preparing themselves for civil unrest, given the current conditions in the country.
Sigma7’s Dr. Mike Blyth, DBA recently conducted a survey of 67 senior resilience, risk, security and crisis leaders to understand how industry experts view the forthcoming US election and the risk of violence. The overwhelming response is that violence is to be expected: 91% of survey participants believe that violence is likely to occur, with only the remaining 9% believing it to be highly unlikely. His academic findings will be published by in the Journal of Business Continuity and Emergency Management in August, with a magazine article planned with ASIS in October.
Civil unrest can have a substantial impact on businesses, causing significant losses for organizations – and their insurers – that are directly affected by political violence. Economic losses can be considerable, whether from property and asset damage or looting, insurance claims and compensation, or business interruption – this could include supply chain disruption where critical vendors or supply routes are cut off or shut down by unrest.
The safety and security of staff can also be at risk in the face of political violence. This is most apparent for those based within places of work that are directly impacted by rioting, but could also include their personal safety should they live in an affected area, or even from other members of staff who could be potentially radicalized by the polarized political situation.
Businesses should also be aware of the reputational risk that comes with polarized political conditions, with the actions of even individual employees enough to draw negative attention, cause reputational damage, and incur financial costs to the organization.
It is difficult to quantify the overall financial costs of rioting, but estimates for previous instances have put the damage in the billions of dollars, including over $1 billion for the 1992 Los Angeles riots, and $2.7 billion for the attack on the US Capitol on January 6, 2021. For individual businesses, engaging with a forensic accounting team can help you put an exact figure on your losses, from the cost of business interruption and supply chain disruption, to looting and damage of assets, right down to the purchase of materials for the boarding of windows to protect individual premises.
When protests and civil unrest are widespread, these costs can add up quickly as the number of locations affected grows.
In our survey of risk leaders, 65% of respondents stated that they anticipated losses of $50,000 or more as a result of political instability surrounding the 2024 US presidential election – with 28% believing that the cost to their business might exceed $1 million.
The former ‘blue wall’ swing states of Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin have been highlighted by ACLED as areas of particular concern when it comes to the potential for civil unrest. Issues such as the Israel-Palestine conflict; far-right militia activity; and the threats to and intimidation of voters and poll workers are all noted as having the potential to drive political disruption.
Major cities frequently see political protests, demonstrations, and rioting, and these locations would be particularly likely to see civil unrest break out in the event of a triggering incident.
Incidents of rioting and major civil unrest since the Jan 6 attack [image source: S7 Intelligence Fusion]
Our surveyed security professionals are expecting major cities to be the scene of violence related to the 2024 US election; 40% of those surveyed expect violence to erupt in several major cities, with a further 20% believing that violence would impact both major cities and multiple mid-sized urban areas. 33% believed that violence would be limited to a small number of major cities in contentious voting areas; only 7% felt that violence would be limited to Washington DC.
While certain localities might be more likely than others to see violence and unrest, the truth is that individual incidents have the capability to spark widescale disruption no matter where they occur – see the 2020 BLM protests in the wake of George Floyd’s death at the hands of Minnesota police as evidence of how localized incidents can cause widespread violence and unrest when the underlying conditions are in place.
A heatmap showing areas of most activity following the death of George Floyd [image source: S7 Intelligence Fusion]
If and when violence breaks out, certain locations are at greater risk of being targeted by rioting.
Law enforcement or government buildings were identified by our respondents as the most likely targets, identified by 43% of those surveyed. This was followed by retail, commercial and recreational areas (9%); business, transport and industrial facilities (3%); and highly populated residential areas (2%). Remarkably, a further 43% of respondents believed that all of the above would be affected.
As highlighted by ACLED, armed intimidation at polling places is also likely to occur, while the recent wave of pro-Palestine demonstrations has underlined that college campuses are potential sites of widescale disruption. Increasingly, the homes of political figures are also being targeted; 2022, for instance, saw the attempted murder of both Paul Pelosi, husband of then House Speaker Nancy Pelosi (D), and Supreme Court Justice Brett Kavanaugh at their respective residences.
Organizations with assets near any of these locations should note the higher risk of being caught up in violence and prepare accordingly.
Political violence has been a recurring theme in the US, with the 2024 election cycle proving no different.
Using the period since the previous election as a cut-off, there have been numerous instances of political violence reported. Reuters has identified 213 cases since the attack on the Capitol Building on January 6, 2021. In the same time period Sigma7’s Intelligence Fusion has mapped over 2700 incidents of protest tagged as ‘political’. Although most of these were peaceful demonstrations, 49 incidents descended into riots – many of these were related to the ongoing Israel-Palestine conflict.
Heatmaps showing incidents involving left-wing (green) and right-wing (blue) extremism [image source: S7 Intelligence Fusion]
Tracking left and right-wing extremism specifically, there have been 166 incidents identified involving political extremism since the January 6 attack. This has included attacks on planned parenthood centers, the targeting of businesses over LGBTQ+ issues, clashes between rival extremist groups, and mass shootings such as the shooting perpetrated by a white supremacist at a supermarket in Buffalo, NY that killed 10 people in May 2022.
At the time of writing, Sigma7 Intelligence Fusion has mapped 66 violent and criminal incidents related to the forthcoming US Election since the start of 2024. This has included 32 instances of bomb threats, primarily targeting State Capitols, court buildings and police departments, although specific businesses have also been targeted because of political issues: in July 2024, for instance, a diner in Brooks, Maine, received a bomb threat after the owner joked about former President Trump’s shooting; meanwhile, over 40 Planet Fitness locations received bomb threats following an online movement protesting the gym’s transgender-inclusive locker room policy.
There have been several bomb threats reported in the past year, targeting State Capitol buildings, police and law premises, and private businesses over political issues [image source: S7 Intelligence Fusion]
While these incidents are concerning in and of themselves, there is the potential for more serious and sustained acts of political violence in the lead up and aftermath of the 2024 election. Understanding the triggers for violence, and the conditions which exacerbate the speed, scope and intensity of rioting, allows organizations to make more informed resilience planning and timely crisis decision-making. The image below demonstrates several domestic and external issues that could trigger political unrest in the US in the coming months, as well as accelerants that could increase the likelihood of this unrest becoming violent.
Exacerbators and accelerants to political unrest and rioting [image source: S7 RSM]
It is likely that certain actors will look to deliberately incite violence – this could be domestic extremists, international terror groups, or hostile government actors. Only 7% of survey respondents believed that intentional or planned violence was highly unlikely – with nearly half (43%) stating that deliberate violence was likely, 33% believing it to be highly likely, and 17% assessing the risk as definite. Among survey participants, 73% worried that agitators or rioters would use weapons, vehicles, explosives, and cyber-attacks. The remaining 27% of the participants believed that public gatherings would be disruptive, but not violent.
While 70% of business leaders are reported by Beazley to be concerned about the US elections, around 1 in 4 surveyed stated that they are unprepared to deal with political risk.
So how can you prepare for political unrest?
Having an effective resilience strategy already in place is a key part. A prepared organization will weather a riot better than an organization that must scramble to design, codify, and implement resilience strategies, structures, plans, resources, and training while also contending with a crisis. This requires an organization-wide approach, encapsulating management structures, communication strategies, codified standards and practices, support and resource allocations, and accredited training and exercising programs. It requires sound intelligence and timely threat tracking and reporting, as well as the knowledge and experience to interpret and use this information correctly. It also requires effective leadership.
Begin with an audit of your existing procedures and resilience measures. How would they cope with any of the anticipated threats to your organization? How prepared are your employees – at all levels – for political unrest? What kind of training have your executive leaders, site management teams, and staff gone through for crisis situations? What risk control measures or business continuity and emergency management plans do you have in place? How quickly can you deploy them across the organization in the event of a crisis?
As a business leader, consulting with your in-house risk and security team can help you understand the answers to these questions, and what additional support and resources you need to deploy. Bringing in outside expertise to work alongside you and your team is also advisable – leaning on their specialist knowledge and experience to craft a bespoke resilience strategy across your organization, and swiftly increasing your level of preparedness with established, tried-and-tested resilience and response plans. Accessing ready-to-go instructor led or digital training can also allow your team to rapidly develop structured or just-in-time knowledge and skills.
Ready-to-go training programs can rapidly develop your team’s ability to handle dangerous situations [image source: S7 University]
Violence can erupt quickly and without warning, but you still have time ahead of the elections to prepare for it. You should be utilizing this time to develop and resource an effective strategy now so that, should political violence strike your organization, you can respond quickly and weather the storm.
As the world’s leading independent risk advisor, Sigma7 is well-placed to guide you through the political risk to your business this election cycle.
Our fully-integrated risk solutions include risk consulting and crisis management services, ready-to-implement business continuity and emergency action plans, training specific to civil disorder, and tailored threat reporting specific to the needs of your organization – as well as expert accounting and claims assistance to ensure you are fully compensated in the event of damage and disruption to your business.
Author: Mike Blyth
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